Simulating partial vaccine protection: BCG in badgers.

In wildlife disease management there are few diseases for which vaccination is a viable option. The human vaccine BCG has been used for the control of bovine tuberculosis in badgers since 2010 and is expected to increase. Understanding the long-term effects of repeated vaccination campaigns on disease prevalence is vital, but modelling thus far has generally assumed that a vaccine provides perfect protection to a proportion of the population, and that animals exposed to a repeated vaccination have a second independent chance of becoming protected. We held a workshop with experts in the field to obtain consensus over the main pathways for partial protection in the badger, and then simulated these using an established model. The available data supported the possibility that some individuals receive no benefit from the BCG vaccine, others may result in a delayed disease progression and in the remaining animals, vaccine protected the individual from any onward transmission. Simulating these pathways using different levels of overall efficacy demonstrated that partial protection leads to a reduced effect of vaccination, but in all of the identified scenarios it was still possible to eradicate disease in an isolated population with no disease introduction. We also identify those potential vaccination failures that require further investigation to determine which of our proposed pathways is the more likely.

Simulating the next steps in badger control for bovine tuberculosis in England.

Industry-led culling of badgers has occurred in England to reduce the incidence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle for a number of years. Badger vaccination is also possible, and a move away from culling was "highly desirable" in a recent report to the UK government. Here we used an established simulation model to examine badger control option in a post-cull environment in England. These options included no control, various intermittent culling, badger vaccination and use of a vaccine combined with fertility control. The initial simulated cull led to a dramatic reduction in the number of infected badgers present, which increased slowly if there was no further badger management. All three approaches led to a further reduction in the number of infected badgers, with little to choose between the strategies. We do note that of the management strategies only vaccination on its own leads to a recovery of the badger population, but also an increase in the number of badgers that need to be vaccinated. We conclude that vaccination post-cull, appears to be particularly effective, compared to vaccination when the host population is at carrying capacity.

Validating activity indices from camera traps for commensal rodents and other wildlife in and around farm buildings.

BACKGROUND: Indices of rodent activity are used as indicators of population change during field evaluation of rodenticides. We investigated the potential for using camera traps to determine activity indices for commensal rodents living in and around farm buildings, and sought to compare these indices against previously calibrated survey methods. RESULTS: We recorded 41 263 images of 23 species, including Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus Berk.) and house mice (Mus musculus L.). We found a positive correlation between activity indices from camera traps and activity indices from a method (footprint tracking) previously shown to have a linear relationship with population size for Norway rats. Filtering the camera trap data to simulate a 30-s delay between camera trigger events removed 59.9% of data and did not adversely affect the correlation between activity indices from camera traps and footprint tracking. The relationship between activity indices from footprint tracking and Norway rat population size is known from a previous study; from this, we determined the relationship between activity indices from camera traps and population size for Norway rats living in and around farm buildings. CONCLUSION: Systematic use of camera traps was used to determine activity indices for Norway rats living in and around farm buildings; the activity indices were positively correlated with those derived from a method previously calibrated against known population size for this species in this context. © 2017 Crown copyright. Pest Management Science © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Simulating control of a focal wildlife outbreak of Echinococcus multilocularis.

The parasitic tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis is the causative agent of alveolar echinococcosis, a serious zoonotic infection present in Europe that can be fatal. The United Kingdom currently has E. multilocularis free status but the possibility of introduction exists, most likely via an imported or returning dog or other deliberately introduced animal that has not had anthelmintic treatment. We have developed a model to predict the probability of successfully eliminating a focal outbreak of E. multilocularis using a programme of anthelmintic bait distribution. We investigated three different potential control programmes, each with 36 monthly campaigns commencing five, ten or 15 years after disease introduction over an area of 2827km2. We assumed equilibrium disease prevalence of 30%, 40% and 55% based on the range of values reported across Europe. However, for all of these scenarios, equilibrium had not been reached at five to 15 years after introduction and simulated local prevalence values were between 0.5% and 28%. We found that it is possible to eliminate the disease with a 38%-86% success rate if control is started five years after introduction, dropping to 0% to 56% if control is delayed until 15 years after introduction, depending upon the prevalence equilibrium. We have also estimated the costs involved in these programmes to be from €7 to €12 million (2013 prices).

Model of Selective and Non-Selective Management of Badgers (Meles meles) to Control Bovine Tuberculosis in Badgers and Cattle.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) causes substantial economic losses to cattle farmers and taxpayers in the British Isles. Disease management in cattle is complicated by the role of the European badger (Meles meles) as a host of the infection. Proactive, non-selective culling of badgers can reduce the incidence of disease in cattle but may also have negative effects in the area surrounding culls that have been associated with social perturbation of badger populations. The selective removal of infected badgers would, in principle, reduce the number culled, but the effects of selective culling on social perturbation and disease outcomes are unclear. We used an established model to simulate non-selective badger culling, non-selective badger vaccination and a selective trap and vaccinate or remove (TVR) approach to badger management in two distinct areas: South West England and Northern Ireland. TVR was simulated with and without social perturbation in effect. The lower badger density in Northern Ireland caused no qualitative change in the effect of management strategies on badgers, although the absolute number of infected badgers was lower in all cases. However, probably due to differing herd density in Northern Ireland, the simulated badger management strategies caused greater variation in subsequent cattle bTB incidence. Selective culling in the model reduced the number of badgers killed by about 83% but this only led to an overall benefit for cattle TB incidence if there was no social perturbation of badgers. We conclude that the likely benefit of selective culling will be dependent on the social responses of badgers to intervention but that other population factors including badger and cattle density had little effect on the relative benefits of selective culling compared to other methods, and that this may also be the case for disease management in other wild host populations.

Obstacle avoidance in social groups: new insights from asynchronous models.

For moving animals, the successful avoidance of hazardous obstacles is an important capability. Despite this, few models of collective motion have addressed the relationship between behavioural and social features and obstacle avoidance. We develop an asynchronous individual-based model for social movement which allows social structure within groups to be included. We assess the dynamics of group navigation and resulting collision risk in the context of information transfer through the system. In agreement with previous work, we find that group size has a nonlinear effect on collision risk. We implement examples of possible network structures to explore the impact social preferences have on collision risk. We show that any social heterogeneity induces greater obstacle avoidance with further improvements corresponding to groups containing fewer influential individuals. The model provides a platform for both further theoretical investigation and practical application. In particular, we argue that the role of social structures within bird flocks may have an important role to play in assessing the risk of collisions with wind turbines, but that new methods of data analysis are needed to identify these social structures.